Results

Icône de l'outil pédagogique Results

Since the full model chain was not yet operational at the time of writing we ran a top-down model chain first assessing the impact of the G20 proposal at market and EU NUTS-2 level using SEAMCAP. We then assessed in more detail the economic and biophysical impact of the changes in market prices following from the SEAMCAP G20 analysis for the Midi-Pyrénées, using the FSSIM model for this region.

The SEAMCAP analyses indicate that in all scenarios agricultural income declines while consumers’ welfare increases with an increase in the degree of liberalization (Table 2). In all cases, the loss in agricultural income and tariff revenues is compensated by increasing consumer’s welfare, so that the total welfare in the agricultural sector increases.

Table 2. Welfare positions at EU25 level (absolute changes to baseline, million Euros).

 


G20

-10%

G20

G20

+10%

Tariff revenues

-2387

 

-3667

-5457

Agricultural income

-9496

-11471

-13804

Money metric (consumer welfare)

16488

19985

24225

Total

4678

4936

4904

Source: SEAMCAP results

 

The regional distribution of the change in agricultural income varies around an average income reduction of 6% with a spread of -16% to -2.5%. These regional differences are determined by the mix of production activities. Meat prices decline most strongly in all scenarios leading to a stronger decline in agricultural income in meat producing regions.

Moving to the regional analysis for Midi-Pyrénées we also find a decline in agricultural income. The FSSIM model also allows us to assess the biophysical impacts at regional level, showing that alongside the income decline nitrate leaching and soil erosion increase, whereas pesticide use declines. Zooming in further to farm type level we find that the regional level results obscure the variation response at farm type level for cereals and oils seeds (Table 3). The increase in protein crops is due to the relative large price increase for pulses (4%) as a result of the G20-proposal.

 

Table 3. Changes in crop pattern by farm type in the G20 proposal (2013, % change to baseline scenario).


Average farm


Cereal

farm type

Cereal / fallow farm type

Mixed

farm type

Cereals

-2


-3

0

0

Oil seeds

0


2

-3

-2

Protein crops

16


16

19

16

Fallow

0


0

0

0

Source: FSSIM results

 

 


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