Conclusions

Icône de l'outil pédagogique Conclusions
The G20 proposal discussed in this example was the most recent version at the time of the second prototype of SEAMLESS-IF. The current negotiations converge on different tariff reduction percentages than in the G20 proposal but with the same thresholds and within the range tested by the sensitivity analyses.

Albeit limited to a top-down assessment of the impact of the G20 proposal the application already illustrates the potential of SEAMLESS-IF to assess policies across scales and domains. Focusing on a market level economic policy of trade liberalization we can assess the impacts at EU25 market level, regional level and at the level of different farm types. Furthermore we can assess the impact on economic indicators like agricultural income, but also on biophysical indicators like nitrate leaching and pesticide use. With an FSSIM-EXPAMOD-SEAMCAP chain operational we can repeat the experiment in a more consistent manner with supply response at the macro level being representative of the farm level models.

In this first application we kept the biophysical context fixed. We could however exploit the possibilities offered by SEAMLESS-IF and to explore whether a change in biophysical context (i.e. availability of new technologies) will change the assessment. This can be considered as a kind of sensitivity analysis to assess whether the conclusions of the analysis are robust when the biophysical context changes.


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